The State of Private Equity: Hope in ‘25

The private equity market rambled on in 2024, with some positive signs heading into 2025. Exits for PE-backed companies increased 17% from 2023 after a two-year decline, while total exit value rose nearly 50% to $413.2 billion.1 Meanwhile, deals achieved their third-best performance in history for both count and value.

Alas, every positive milestone came with a caution. Exits rebounded, but fundraisers closed the fewest funds in a decade as fundraising values dropped to their lowest levels since 2018 (excluding the outlier year of 2020). U.S. funds also took a median of 16 months to close.

Keep reading for a recap of private equity fundraising, exits, and dealmaking in 2024—and what the details mean for 2025.

Private equity fundraising ended 2024 on a down note, with just 311 funds opened, the lowest count in a decade. Total value is projected to exceed $300 billion once late-closing funds are tallied—but median funds took 16 months to close, a 45% increase from 2022.2 Worse, North American PE funds that closed in 2024 spent an average of 19 months in the market, marking an all-time high.3

While megafunds gave 2024 a boost, they may drag on 2025’s performance. A mere 10 of the giant vehicles (3.5%) accounted for 44% of total capital raised ($124 billion). Setting a PE record, 80% of 2024’s funds were larger than their predecessors. Troublingly, the 12 megafunds currently in the market are unlikely to close in 2025, potentially reducing fundraising performance for the year.4

Looking at fund strategies, buyout funds dominated PE in 2024, raising 83% ($236 billion) of the year’s total. Middle market funds, with sizes ranging between $100 million and $5 billion, attracted capital by offering smaller deal sizes in an uncertain market and accounted for 56% of the buyout total ($158 billion) across 172 funds. Growth equity contributed only 15% ($43 billion) as LPs steered clear of the sector’s historic reliance on high-growth strategies.

Dry powder levels stayed above $1 trillion, a milestone first reached in 2022. However, funds reduced reserves as they faced fundraising constraints and relied more on existing stockpiles. Capital raised since 2022 comprised roughly 80% of the dry powder supply.

After two years of decline, 2024’s exit count and value finally grew but needs to increase further to clear current inventory. Exit counts reached 1,501, exceeding 2023’s count by 17%, while total value rose 49% to $413 billion. Remarkably, these totals also bested the pre-COVID averages of 2017-2019. The increased activity is encouraging, but it’s notable that working through the existing inventory of companies will require nearly eight years even at the current exit rate.

Most exit avenues saw substantial value growth in 2024, and the IPO count grew as well. Led by Viking Cruises’s $10 billion listing, 2024 accounted for 16 IPO exits worth $41 billion (by contrast, in 2023 just 14 IPOs brought in $8 billion). Corporate sales also grew 32% in value despite a 30% reduction in exit count.

This avenue still surpassed sponsor-to-sponsor exit activity, which managed a 6% growth in value and just a 1.4% increase in count. The performance can be attributed to the ongoing friction between PE sellers and buyers over asset valuations, combined with the anemic financing market early in the year. For deals that were completed, the price remained high, emphasizing interest in high-quality assets when available.

Continuation funds came into their own in 2024, accounting for 96 exits in Europe and North America, up 13% from 85 such deals in 2023.5 Continuation funds offer PE firms a way to provide distributions to their LPs without forgoing the upside of promising but aged assets. LPs are accepting these vehicles, and more than half view them as an opportunity to maximize the eventual value from strong-performing assets.6

U.S. PE dealmaking turned in the third-best performance in history in 2024, surpassing 2023’s results in both count and value. Deal value for the full year grew by 19%, to $839 billion, on more favorable inflation data. Deal count grew by 13% to 8,473 transactions.

All deal types contributed to 2024’s strong showing. Buyout deals in excess of $1 billion drove the resurgence, reflecting lower inflation, better credit availability, and three interest rate cuts during 2024. Growth equity continued to punch above its weight, making up 21% of the year’s deal count compared to the 20% contributed by platform LBOs, a trend that began in Q1 2023.

PE exits and deals are back—and those exits were big. Fundraising slowed, but there’s lots of dry powder. Interest rates fell three times last year and are projected to be cut at least twice in 2025. Things are looking good for the year ahead, especially considering the new administration’s expected light regulatory touch.

But the horizon is not cloudless. Potential budget cuts and tariffs, stress on consumer balance sheets, federal debt, and international uncertainty may pose challenges to PE portfolio companies and dealmaking. If you’re a private equity GP looking to navigate these uncertainties while fundraising, scaling operations, or undergoing digital transformation to benefit your LPs—Juniper Square is here to be your partner.

1 These and the rest of the data included in this report, except where otherwise noted, are from PitchBook, PitchBook, 2024 Annual US PE Breakdown, https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/2024_Annual_US_PE_Breakdown.pdf, January 10, 2025.
2 PitchBook, 2024 Annual US PE Breakdown, p. 30.
3 Kirk Falconer, “Private equity fundraising timelines hit a record 19 months in 2024,” Buyouts, January 27, 2025, https://www.buyoutsinsider.com/private-equity-fundraising-timelines-hit-a-record-19-months-in-2024/.
4 PitchBook, 2024 Annual US PE Breakdown, p. 32.
5 PitchBook, 2024 Annual US PE Breakdown,p. 25.
6 Coller Capital, Winter 2024-25 Global Private Equity Barometer, https://www.collercapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Global-Private-Equity-Barometer-Winter-2024-25.pdf, p. 10.